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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Lun 30 Mai 2011 - 20:37

Winamax Poker - Tournament "Deepstack Hold'em" buyIn: 4,50€ + 0,50€ level: 8 - HandId: #34448188924493855-75-1306780291 - Holdem no limit (75/400/800) - 2011/05/30 20:31:31 UTC
Table: 'Deepstack Hold'em(8020594)#30' 9-max (real money) Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: pooky76 (74622)
Seat 2: kaczo4287 (18630)
Seat 3: Rocknrolla_7 (48856)
Seat 4: Ropie (41594)
Seat 5: icecasey1982 (33600)
Seat 6: Kroes (76410)
Seat 7: DIDIER17 (26995)
Seat 8: benito21x (50262)
Seat 9: sls500amg (30868)
ANTE/BLINDS
pooky76 posts ante 75
kaczo4287 posts ante 75
Rocknrolla_7 posts ante 75
Ropie posts ante 75
icecasey1982 posts ante 75
Kroes posts ante 75
DIDIER17 posts ante 75
benito21x posts ante 75
sls500amg posts ante 75
benito21x posts small blind 400
sls500amg posts big blind 800
Dealt to Kroes
[KS] [AS]
PRE-FLOP
pooky76 folds
kaczo4287 raises 1600 to 2400
Rocknrolla_7 folds
Ropie folds
icecasey1982 folds
Kroes raises 5000 to 7400
DIDIER17 folds
benito21x calls 7000
sls500amg folds
kaczo4287 calls 5000
FLOP
[KC] [4D] [6C]
benito21x bets 800
kaczo4287 folds
Kroes raises 15950 to 16750
benito21x calls 15950
TURN
[KC] [4D] [6C] [9D]
benito21x bets 800
Kroes raises 51385 to 52185 and is all-in
benito21x calls 25237 and is all-in
RIVER
[KC] [4D] [6C] [9D] [3C]
SHOW DOWN
benito21x shows
[AC] [4C] (Flush Ace high)
Kroes shows
[KS] [AS] (One pair : Kings)
Kroes collected 26148 from side pot 1
benito21x collected 109249 from main pot
SUMMARY
Total pot 135397 | No rake
Board:
[KC] [4D] [6C] [9D] [3C]
Seat 1: pooky76 folded on the pre-flop
Seat 2: kaczo4287 folded on the flop
Seat 3: Rocknrolla_7 folded on the pre-flop
Seat 4: Ropie folded on the pre-flop
Seat 5: icecasey1982 folded on the pre-flop
Seat 6: Kroes showed
[KS] [AS] and won 26148 with One pair : Kings
Seat 7: DIDIER17 (button) folded on the pre-flop
Seat 8: benito21x (small blind) showed
[AC] [4C] and won 109249 with Flush Ace high
Seat 9: sls500amg (big blind) folded on the pre-flop




WTF

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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Lun 30 Mai 2011 - 21:47

Standard .fr

Sans vouloir faire le blasé, je suis pas vraiment surpris.... Je suis meme plutot surpris que ça te surprenne Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing


Pas plus tard que cet aprem



Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1326420
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $30.84
UTG: $26.63
UTG+1: $10.93
UTG+2: $27.25
MP1: $28.89
MP2: $11.13
CO: $21.03
BTN: $25.00
Hero (SB): $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with
4 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1

Flop: ($2.75) (2 players)
Hero bets $2, MP2 calls $2

Turn: ($6.75) (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $3.16, Hero raises to $13.27, MP2 calls $4.72 all in

River: ($22.51) (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $22.51
MP2 shows (a flush, Ace high)
Hero shows (two pair, Aces and Fives)
MP2 wins $21.04
(Rake: $1.47)


Backdoor flush easy game...
Puis dans la chatbox ( je vous laisse le pseudo c est pas le genre de joueur qui se connecte quotidiennement malheureusement)


Citation :
aqualoux said, "yes"

aqualoux said, "je vais faire le tournoi a 10 ero"

aqualoux said, "et le gagner"

aqualoux said, "a+"



Insta leave of course
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Lun 30 Mai 2011 - 22:07

Nan pas surpris je prends exactement la meme sur le 2eme tournoi ou j'etais engagé d'ou le leger tilt

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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Dim 3 Juil 2011 - 9:01

moltisanti1982 a écrit:
Standard .fr

Insta leave of course

'tain ces.fr, c'est hallucinant, plus l'habitude

pareil des fois je sens que je vais overtilté je quitte la table direct lol
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mar 2 Aoû 2011 - 21:51

Winamax Poker - Tournament "Deepstack Hold'em" buyIn: 4,50€ + 0,50€ level: 15 - HandId: #43617222546948145-117-1312314064 - Holdem no limit (500/2000/4000) - 2011/08/02 21:41:04 UTC
Table: 'Deepstack Hold'em(10155426)#048' 9-max (real money) Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: skoloner (88160)
Seat 2: vive_toi (288020)
Seat 3: typhil29 (96028)
Seat 4: bachata02 (349938)
Seat 5: Kroes (110486)
Seat 6: PISKO278 (245078)
Seat 7: CARREJJ (217029)
Seat 8: Gilker (69657)
Seat 9: lucio54800 (50790)
ANTE/BLINDS
skoloner posts ante 500
vive_toi posts ante 500
typhil29 posts ante 500
bachata02 posts ante 500
Kroes posts ante 500
PISKO278 posts ante 500
CARREJJ posts ante 500
Gilker posts ante 500
lucio54800 posts ante 500
skoloner posts small blind 2000
vive_toi posts big blind 4000
Dealt to Kroes
[9D] [9C]
PRE-FLOP
typhil29 folds
bachata02 raises 4000 to 8000
Kroes calls 8000
PISKO278 folds
CARREJJ folds
Gilker folds
lucio54800 folds
skoloner folds
vive_toi folds
FLOP
[2H] [JC] [JH]
bachata02 bets 13250
Kroes calls 13250
TURN
[2H] [JC] [JH] [7H]
bachata02 bets 18000
Kroes calls 18000
RIVER
[2H] [JC] [JH] [7H] [6S]
bachata02 bets 89000



CALL?

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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mar 2 Aoû 2011 - 22:10

As played oui, meme si je trouve son sizing turn un peu chelou et que je suis trop chèvre en MTT pour pouvoir en tirer des conclusions intéréssantes Very Happy

Preflop en MTT avec ce genre de main et le stack que t as je préfère 3 bet pas trop gros quand meme.
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mar 2 Aoû 2011 - 23:40

Pour l'histoire j'ai call et l'ai attrappé

et suis sorti sur une horreur...

Winamax Poker - Tournament "Deepstack Hold'em" buyIn: 4,50€ + 0,50€ level: 25 - HandId: #43617222546948127-224-1312321023 - Holdem no limit (5000/20000/40000) - 2011/08/02 23:37:03 UTC
Table: 'Deepstack Hold'em(10155426)#030' 9-max (real money) Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: typhil29 (1603517)
Seat 2: deepforces_x (680408)
Seat 3: bidibul63 (716756)
Seat 4: pfiff4861 (802335)
Seat 5: maitreyoda91 (1130653)
Seat 7: Kroes (1190972)
Seat 8: pokerpro08 (353330)
Seat 9: Blackiller (881663)
ANTE/BLINDS
typhil29 posts ante 5000
deepforces_x posts ante 5000
bidibul63 posts ante 5000
pfiff4861 posts ante 5000
maitreyoda91 posts ante 5000
Kroes posts ante 5000
pokerpro08 posts ante 5000
Blackiller posts ante 5000
maitreyoda91 posts small blind 20000
Kroes posts big blind 40000
Dealt to Kroes
[QH] [10S]
PRE-FLOP
pokerpro08 folds
Blackiller raises 40000 to 80000
typhil29 folds
deepforces_x folds
bidibul63 folds
pfiff4861 folds
maitreyoda91 folds
Kroes calls 40000
FLOP
[10H] [QC] [KC]
Kroes checks
Blackiller bets 120000
Kroes raises 985972 to 1105972 and is all-in
Blackiller calls 676663 and is all-in
TURN
[10H] [QC] [KC] [7S]
RIVER
[10H] [QC] [KC] [7S] [7D]
SHOW DOWN
Blackiller shows
[KD] [9S] (Two pairs : Kings and 7)
Kroes shows
[QH] [10S] (Two pairs : Queens and Tens)
Kroes collected 309309 from side pot 1
Blackiller collected 1813326 from main pot
SUMMARY
Total pot 2122635 | No rake
Board:
[10H] [QC] [KC] [7S] [7D]
Seat 1: typhil29 folded on the pre-flop
Seat 2: deepforces_x folded on the pre-flop
Seat 3: bidibul63 folded on the pre-flop
Seat 4: pfiff4861 (button) folded on the pre-flop
Seat 5: maitreyoda91 (small blind) folded on the pre-flop
Seat 7: Kroes (big blind) showed
[QH] [10S] and won 309309 with Two pairs : Queens and Tens
Seat 8: pokerpro08 folded on the pre-flop
Seat 9: Blackiller showed
[KD] [9S] and won 1813326 with Two pairs : Kings and 7

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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mar 2 Aoû 2011 - 23:45

bizarre la main d'avant; il aurait AA KK QQ il aurait check au moins une street si il est pas con
il reste AJ ou AKs, beaucoup plus de combinaisons de AK AQ et paires donc call mais c'est limite, comme c'est un 5 euros j'aurais ptet caller mais bon... 89 000 lol

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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mar 31 Jan 2012 - 11:36

wé c'etait un fish, en tout cas pour cette limite, il joue trop haut
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mar 31 Jan 2012 - 12:11

belle analyse
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Ven 3 Fév 2012 - 13:26

beaucoup diront que c'est bien moi ca m'a fait tilter ce coup la!!!!


Dealt to Maxmad972 [7s 7h]
*** PRE-FLOP ***
raisemonblaz calls 300
jejeauby calls 300
Maxmad972 raises 1500 to 1800
ggdestdr folds
bolide raises 18700 to 20500 and is all-in
dragon2a folds
moldo77 folds
Luffy92000 folds
starzzy63 calls 16775 and is all-in
raisemonblaz calls 20200
jejeauby folds
Maxmad972 folds
*** FLOP *** [9c 4d 5h]
*** TURN *** [9c 4d 5h][5d]
*** RIVER *** [9c 4d 5h 5d][Jd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
starzzy63 shows [Ac Qh] (One pair : 5)
bolide shows [Qs Ks] (One pair : 5)
raisemonblaz shows [Kd As] (One pair : 5)
raisemonblaz collected 60325 from pot
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Ven 3 Fév 2012 - 13:29

beaucoup diront que c'est bien moi ca m'a fait tilter ce coup la!!!!


Dealt to Maxmad972 [7s 7h]
*** PRE-FLOP ***
raisemonblaz calls 300
jejeauby calls 300
Maxmad972 raises 1500 to 1800
ggdestdr folds
bolide raises 18700 to 20500 and is all-in
dragon2a folds
moldo77 folds
Luffy92000 folds
starzzy63 calls 16775 and is all-in
raisemonblaz calls 20200
jejeauby folds
Maxmad972 folds
*** FLOP *** [9c 4d 5h]
*** TURN *** [9c 4d 5h][5d]
*** RIVER *** [9c 4d 5h 5d][Jd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
starzzy63 shows [Ac Qh] (One pair : 5)
bolide shows [Qs Ks] (One pair : 5)
raisemonblaz shows [Kd As] (One pair : 5)
raisemonblaz collected 60325 from pot
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mar 21 Fév 2012 - 12:55

EverestPoker Game #7406909327: Table Lorient-7 - €0.05/€0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:02:24 - 2012/02/20
Seat 1: resettoz (€10.00)
Seat 2: Saelion (€19.10)
Seat 3: melka66 (€5.41)
Seat 4: upaymyfood (€9.85)
Seat 5: djalex89 (€10.12)
Seat 7: natas--69-- (€10.00)
Seat 8: Darkmoll2.0 (€9.90)
Seat 9: KMeROrNeL (€17.02)
Seat 10: LAURENTS. (€8.18)
Darkmoll2.0 posts the small blind of €0.05
KMeROrNeL posts the big blind of €0.10
resettoz posts the dead blind of €0.10
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to upaymyfood [Ad Qs]
LAURENTS. calls €0.10
resettoz checks
Saelion folds
melka66 folds
upaymyfood raises to €0.55
djalex89 folds
Darkmoll2.0 calls €0.50
KMeROrNeL folds
LAURENTS. calls €0.45
resettoz folds
*** FLOP *** [8c 8s 3c]
Darkmoll2.0 checks
LAURENTS. bets €0.10
upaymyfood calls €0.10
Darkmoll2.0 calls €0.10
*** TURN *** [8d]
Darkmoll2.0 checks
LAURENTS. bets €0.10
upaymyfood calls €0.10
Darkmoll2.0 calls €0.10
*** RIVER *** [Kd]
Darkmoll2.0 checks
LAURENTS. bets €0.40
upaymyfood raises to €2.35
Darkmoll2.0 folds
LAURENTS. folds
Uncalled bet of €1.95 returned to upaymyfood
*** SUMMARY ***
upaymyfood collects €3.03

LOL


EverestPoker Game #7407481172: Table Lorient-4 - €0.05/€0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:22:37 - 2012/02/20
Seat 1: upaymyfood (€10.96)
Seat 2: wakisashiiii (€2.67)
Seat 3: gaet5904 (€5.25)
Seat 4: falk40100 (€3.58)
Seat 5: chittane@ (€1.64)
Seat 6: nfnpmjppv (€6.92)
Seat 7: oimpes (€18.17)
Seat 8: atefoub (€8.55)
Seat 9: lucky_fox (€8.86)
Seat 10: micklinx (€4.23)
micklinx posts the small blind of €0.05
upaymyfood posts the big blind of €0.10
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to upaymyfood [8d 5s]
wakisashiiii folds
gaet5904 folds
falk40100 folds
chittane@ calls €0.10
nfnpmjppv folds
oimpes folds
atefoub folds
lucky_fox folds
micklinx calls €0.05
upaymyfood checks
*** FLOP *** [5d 5c 5h]
micklinx checks
upaymyfood bets €0.20
chittane@ calls €0.20
micklinx folds
*** TURN *** [10s]
upaymyfood bets €0.65
chittane@ raises to €1.34, and is all-in
upaymyfood calls €0.69
upaymyfood shows [8d 5s]
chittane@ shows [Ks Kc]
*** RIVER *** [Ad]
chittane@ shows [Ks Kc]
upaymyfood shows [8d 5s]
*** SUMMARY ***
upaymyfood shows [8d 5s]
chittane@ shows [Ks Kc]
upaymyfood collects €3.16


une belle livraison, dommage qu'il soit pas deepstack
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mar 21 Fév 2012 - 13:55

un exemple d'analyse de main (tldr)

200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?

Villain is 27/18/3 over a solid sample. We were on a couple tables together and both tables I had been card dead, so I look very nitty. I don't have much personal experience with this player, just datamined hands.

Comments on flop/turn. Call river?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (SB): $200
BB: $60
UTG: $219.95
CO: $199.20
BTN: $247.60

Preflop: Hero is dealt A K (5 Players)
2 folds, BTN raises to $7, Hero raises to $27, BB folds, BTN calls $20

Flop: ($56) 5 4 J (2 Players)
Hero bets $40, BTN calls $40

Turn: ($136) K (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($136) Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $65, Hero


*call i guess. Yuz getting good odds. I play it pretty much the same. If he bet turn I'd call and c/fold river.



*I think it's a call. Definitely for this much.

KJ bets the Turn. AT and JT would be pretty much folding the flop.

So the only hand he's he's likely to have that beats you now is QJ.

So there's a good chance you're ahead, you've shown a lot of weakness on Turn/River making him think he can take the pot (which is the value in not betting the River). And you're completely priced into it, as strong as your hand is. I'd even call a bit of a larger bet.

Call, if he's got QJ so be it.






*Quote:

I would have bet the turn pretty strong, if I get a call then I play the river cautiously. You could have possibly avoided this decision altogether

anyone shove turn ?
cus if we bet the turn that's pretty much what we're doing on any river


*Quote:

fold you dont beat anything... its a 3bet pot. like at best you're splitting. why does no one see this? like i understand its blind vs button but i dont think we beat a hell of a lot and the river really looks like it wants a call.

This is pretty close to accurate.

A basic range of JJ+/AK has us completely owned. Of course he has other hands, but quite a few of them own us also (KJ/JQ/44/55).

However I'm not sure villian "wants a call" on the river - it could be a block bet also and I think we should fold due to his hand range, but it's tough to do with these odds but if I'm playing well I would fold this.

You thinks that's close to accurate? I think it's well out.
I personally think you and Kayfish are reading "he's gonna be too strong here" without working out ranges, and why.

Of the hands you've said that own us QJ is the only hand that is likely to not bet the Turn. There's not a lot of value in him not betting the Turn, unless he thinks we're a habitual river bluffer, and given the prior action we're either strong enough to call here, or not bluffing.

And it's a button steal, calling a 3B in position, from a 27/18. The guy does not need to have JJ+/AK. Not at all. There's a lot of hands he could decide to call in position with here.
(As for it being a blocking bet, it's on the river in position. It's either a value bet or a bluff. That's all.)

In short saying "you can't beat anything, you can't call" seems wrong because
1. We beat everything he can seem to have played this way except QJ.
2. We've Cbetted and then switched off on the Turn and River. He has every reason to think you can't call a bet.
3. By checking the Turn/River we are under-repping our hand and essentially inducing a bluff. You shouldn't be doing that with a hand that is strong enough to bet, and then not calling. Especially to a non-large bet. I think you're giving people a licence to steal otherwise.
So, hands that would have played this way we're behind
QJs.
Hands that could well have played this way we're ahead of
88-TTish, J/T9s (and any floats).
And we're tied with AK and giving up half the pot to (for a half pot bet)
Quote:

I would have bet the turn pretty strong, if I get a call then I play the river cautiously. You could have possibly avoided this decision altogether

I think this is pretty horrible advice. Mostly for the reasons stated. And I hear that too much here - "you could have avoided having to make a decision"

You don't make a play just to avoid having to make a decision. Sometimes it's more profitable to make a play that leaves us with a decision later. And this is an example of one of those cases.

If we bet the Turn we're folding out worse hands, and putting in too much money for the hands that beat us most likely. Checking the Turn here gives our opponent a decision. Does he bet the River without a hand? If we bet the Turn he has no decision and we've made life easy for him.

Doing it to avoid a decision is just not good enough. Especially when the river decision isn't even super hard.


*You misinterpreted what I wrote. I didn't mean that I would make that play in order to avoid a decision, its just that had you bet the turn, given what had occured in the hand thus far, villian may have folded and as a byproduct the river decision is avoided. But the turn bet was not in itself purely a way of avoiding a confrontation later. You check. then call the flop. A king comes which is possibly quite the scare card to villian if he has a hand like 10's or QQ's or what not.. and now he has the decision to make. If he has AJ he might be turned off by a formidable turn bet here. Just my thoughts anyways. . .


*I still don't see any logic from those who say fold here. Just throwing out "you have to beat here", "he wouldn't bet worse", "it's often a set". How about coming out with some that the action suggests?

What damn set? The only credible one is a rivered QQ.
And that and QJ are the only hands you should have to worry about.

And yes, bluffing with the underpair for half of the pot here is great given the number of people who seem to think this is a clear fold with a hand as strong as AK, with very little beating it. It's not even as if villain bets the full pot on the river and we have to think it over some. He's made it easy.

Again, throwing out "you're beat" when the action dictates that very few hands are ahead of you is just bad thinking. Not least when villains river action follows hero considerably underrepresenting his hand...
*I'll try not to be results oriented as I attempt to explain this. But in retrospect I feel my thought process should have been something similar to this.

I said in the OP that most of what villain had seen from me was very nitty; probably 16/12 range. So I think for him to call my 3-bet he has to hold a pretty strong hand. It isn't as though I gave him really good odds to call the 3-bet either (w/ hands like 44, 55). I made a larger than pot sized bet.

Since my image is so tight I think we can narrow down his calling range PF and on the flop. Don't you agree?

He isn't calling PF w/ AJ and I doubt AQ. I also doubt he is calling PF w/ anything less than 88, but I won't rule out other pps.

Then on the flop I don't think he can make the call w/ AK, 88-TT; given my image I don't think he makes that call. I honestly believe he needs 44, 55 (discounting the small pps), JJ or QQ to simply smooth call this flop. I know it sounds way too tight a range to give him but given my image don't you think we can narrow it down pretty well right there?

So I hit tptk on the turn and feel pretty good about it b/c now I am mostly worried about JJ. But he checks through the turn and bam the river Q. So honestly I doubt he is getting to the turn w/ a hand that doesn't have me beat on the river. Doesn't that make sense?

Now the odds are really good on the river but when we take into account my image and the actions + cards on each street do you really think he is going to bluff TT or less here? If I did c-bet w/ AK, AQ then I just got there and I think he would make a larger bet to push me off my hand.

So considering how tight he had seen me playing (unless he has datamined hands on me) I really think his PF and flop calling ranges go way down. Even if he called PF w/ any pp I really don't think he is calling the flop w/ anything other than 44, 55.


*Dirte, what you're saying first of all is you didn't call, so we won't ever know what he had? Is that right?

Secondly I think you're overestimating image. You can't count on it, and opponents to react on it, at this level. Many opponents aren't observant enough, are too busy playing lots of tables, or just don't care.

There's a lot of opponents who call your PF raise with an underpair, and call the expected flop continuation bet, like wise with a suited connector containing a Jack. Because they're happy to be ahead of AK. Which is what you have.

When the Turn hits he realises the hand he was ahead (AK) he is now behind. He's happy to check.

When the River hits and you still check his thoughts could well be "damn?! he got nothing?!". And there comes the bluff. It seems you've given up on the pot.

And to say "he'd bluff a bigger amount" is fine. Except you can't just fold to small bets because they aren't bluffs, and call big bets because they might be. That's saying you're not willing to put a bit in to win the pot, but you'll put a lot in.

You think he checks JJ/55/44 on the Turn? I don't. You're only behind QQ and QJ. He could have either. If he has neither you're good.


*No, I did call. And that is why I am worried about being results oriented. But in retrospect I feel like I should have considered my image. But maybe you're right. I feel like this particular player pays as much attention to the games as I do, plus we were on 2 or 3 tables together. So he could easily see that I had been playing tight, but I could be wrong.

fwiw, he had JJ for a sneakily played top set.

But no, I wouldn't necessarily call a larger bet. The reason I called the river was b/c he bet so small; which gave me good odds b/c his range probably doesn't have me worse than 3:1.

Isura, why is betting the river better than c/c? Don't we fold out all hands we have beat and only get called, and probably raise, by all hands that have us beat? Plus, if we bet river and he raises we're committed to get all in and we are never ahead. Right?


*Let's make a couple of assumptions.
1. Opponent didn't float the flop. This should be pretty obvious because of the turn check.
2. Opponent rarely has a set. Again, because of the turn check.
3. Opponent would check down AJo/AJs/JTs on the river

Given these assumptions, let's assign a reasonable range to get to the river this way and then bet. {66-TT, QJs, QQ}

66-TT = 30 combos, QJs = 2 combos, QQ = 3 combos.

Let's say he only bluffs with 66-TT 50% of the time. He "should" have 66-TT ~85% of the time based on combos. Let's do an EV calc:

-65*15% + 201*85%*50% = $75

If my assumptions were true, folding is obv. a giant mistake. Let's skew them a bit and do another EV calc. Let's say he would check two pair/ or a set on the turn ~25% of the time. Let's also say that he would only bluff with 66-TT 30% of the time.

44/55/JJ/KK = 10 combos; KJs = 2 combos. 66-TT = 30; QJs = 2; QQ=3

-65*11% + -65*25%*50% + 201*64%*30% = $23


I think calling is clearly +EV. Someone please check these calcs. for me. Manipulate the assumptions as you like, but I think one would be hard pressed to prove to me that calling is -EV.



*Quote:

Betting the river is so much better than check/call

elaborate please?

he can't cause that's an ugly line.


*Quote:

Yeah... If you don't reraise light against button openers and then c-bet a dry flop, then its probably not good to bet this river.

Forgive my ignorance, is this sarcasm? I've read it 15x and it doesn't make sense to me. Do you mean that the villain's calling range will be too strong if the hero's 3betting range is too narrow?


*basically. if hero never 3bets light or bluffs in 3bet pots a river bet is basically a bluff.

as for the hand. i don't like the assumptions that he can't check behind w/ a set. even though that hurts the case for calling i still call just b/c we don't have a strong enough read to do otherwise.


*Quote:

Yeah... If you don't reraise light against button openers and then c-bet a dry flop, then its probably not good to bet this river.

define 3-betting "light"

It changes for me though. Sometimes I'll run at 30/28 and others I'll run at 16/12. It partly depends on the cards and partly on the opponents. During a session earlier today I was running about 32/30 on one table and 15/14 on another over 150 hands.

Anyway, during the hand I was sure this was a clear call but results prompted me to ask.

I checked the river to induce the bluff and I got it, so I can't fold unless I have a spot on read. I just like to hear feedback and confirmation that I'm not a donk.
jk3a made an awesome post. That kinda [censored] takes some time and I think we can all learn a lot from posts like his.


*i cant believe there are so many people that think a fold is in order here...this should be a 3-4 post thread IMO...i agree with sharksandwich 100% NO WAY AM I FOLDING HERE...A turn bet is ok, but I think your line is perfect


*Okay, I don't understand this thread at all. Maybe that's why I'm breaking even for a bunch of hands, I don't know.

First of all, this is a button open vs blind reraise hand, which make both ranges pretty damn wide.

Second, why would villain believe Hero has gotten any part of this flop? He could be calling with any of his midpairs, Jx hands, draws, or hopes and dreams of running some weird bluff line.

Turn: I'm torn between betting and checking here. We've got TPTK in a re-raised pot, so it's obvious that we can't just let go. Stack and pot size are such that we could give villain real attractive odds to call us down and still get our stack in. Or we could hope he tries to bluff us out or valuebet a worse hand, and get his stack that way. The problem is that right now, our hand looks pretty good. But any T or higher, and 7 or lower will make this board look very ugly.

River: as played, I can't imagine folding to this bet. This could be any two cards that called flop for whatever reason, checked turn because they got scared, and are trying to buy the pot on half price on the river.

*Quote:

I'll try not to be results oriented as I attempt to explain this. But in retrospect I feel my thought process should have been something similar to this.

I said in the OP that most of what villain had seen from me was very nitty; probably 16/12 range. So I think for him to call my 3-bet he has to hold a pretty strong hand. It isn't as though I gave him really good odds to call the 3-bet either (w/ hands like 44, 55). I made a larger than pot sized bet.

Since my image is so tight I think we can narrow down his calling range PF and on the flop. Don't you agree?

He isn't calling PF w/ AJ and I doubt AQ. I also doubt he is calling PF w/ anything less than 88, but I won't rule out other pps.

Then on the flop I don't think he can make the call w/ AK, 88-TT; given my image I don't think he makes that call. I honestly believe he needs 44, 55 (discounting the small pps), JJ or QQ to simply smooth call this flop. I know it sounds way too tight a range to give him but given my image don't you think we can narrow it down pretty well right there?

So I hit tptk on the turn and feel pretty good about it b/c now I am mostly worried about JJ. But he checks through the turn and bam the river Q. So honestly I doubt he is getting to the turn w/ a hand that doesn't have me beat on the river. Doesn't that make sense?

Now the odds are really good on the river but when we take into account my image and the actions + cards on each street do you really think he is going to bluff TT or less here? If I did c-bet w/ AK, AQ then I just got there and I think he would make a larger bet to push me off my hand.

So considering how tight he had seen me playing (unless he has datamined hands on me) I really think his PF and flop calling ranges go way down. Even if he called PF w/ any pp I really don't think he is calling the flop w/ anything other than 44, 55.

Your hand ranges for villain are insanely tight. Who folds TT in this spot? Since he checked the turn he is going to have a monster or a hand with showdown value, not a hand that wants to bluff the river. So the play is to value-bet or check/fold here IMO. You guys are over-estimating how likely it is that players at small stakes will turn a made hand into a bluff in a big pot.

I know they're insanely tight, but I only came up with that range b/c of my tight image.

Maybe I am completely over analyzing this hand lol. But it is in these marginal situations that I think there is many bb/100 to be won/lost.

However, as many have already stated this is not a fold by any means. I just feel that his range is narrowed b/c of how tight I had been playing but then again I could be overestimating the thought process of villain; even though he seems to be a solid player.

In a vacuum this is an easy call and would only require 3 or 4 responses to the OP. But I am trying to go a little deeper than the standard situation.

I still don't understand why you think a bet is better than a c/c. I really don't think he is calling the river w/ a worse hand.


*Yea but after checking the turn he's probably not betting a worse made hand either.

And besides, c-bet dry flop/check turn/lead river screams weakness.




*Quote:

If people see you are folding too often, you will be pushed around with such 1/2 pot bets all your remaining life.

And this was one of the many factors that tips it even more towards a call. If you can't catch a bluff with a hand this strong what do you need?
Even if we're ever so slightly -EV here I'd rather call. It'll earn you a little "if he checks a hand that strong twice I shouldn't just autobet him" in future hands.

I think isura's "he's got a checkdown-showdown hand or a monster" so we might as well B/F has some merit. BUT look at how many people think a fold is the clear play here to a halfpot bet, with a hand as strong as this. I'd wager it's over a 1/3rd.

So a stone cold bluff on this river (which essentially includes an underpair, or even JTish) isn't that bad an idea. If you look like you've given up on the pot (by 2xChecking) then you're asking someone to bet anything and nothing there. Any many villains would happily oblige.
Quote:

Let's say he would check two pair/ or a set on the turn ~25% of the time. Let's also say that he would only bluff with 66-TT 30% of the time.

44/55/JJ/KK = 10 combos; KJs = 2 combos. 66-TT = 30; QJs = 2; QQ=3

-65*11% + -65*25%*50% + 201*64%*30% = $23

Excellent analysis jk. I think you'd have to stretch a little to make this -EV.

You'd have to limit the PP's to like 88-TT (which is too narrow against most). Maybe increase the set-check rate.

And basically I think your 2nd set of numbers are all reasonable probability numbers. I'm still with calling, even though he did have JJ.
And I think Villain actually got about the least out of it by checking the Turn (when he's hoping Hero has at least AK) and then betting so small on the River.

Interesting hand overall. And the type of thing I think forums like this thrive on.
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mar 21 Fév 2012 - 14:26

... What the fuck are you talking about?

Ché une anal ease spéchial piour Titan, toutainfransais du norte.
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mar 21 Fév 2012 - 14:31

WTF !!! i have more than 6000 hand history discussion Smile

18 000 pages de theory et de calculs

quel fou ce pantera lol
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mar 21 Fév 2012 - 14:43

masterdonk a écrit:
18 000 pages de theory et de calculs



Tel: 03.28.24.40.60 Prise en charge 100% CPAM. Ils sont gentils et la bouffe est pas mauvaise.
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mar 21 Fév 2012 - 14:46

je pense pas que j'aurais le temps

je vais plutôt voir du côté d'atlantic city

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_City_%28New_Jersey%29

c'est tranquille ya pas beaucoup de population et ya des beaux casinos
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mer 22 Fév 2012 - 17:51

Citation :
n exemple d'analyse de main (tldr)

200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?

Villain is 27/18/3 over a solid sample. We were on a couple tables together and both tables I had been card dead, so I look very nitty. I don't have much personal experience with this player, just datamined hands.

Comments on flop/turn. Call river?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (SB): $200
BB: $60
UTG: $219.95
CO: $199.20
BTN: $247.60

Preflop: Hero is dealt A K (5 Players)
2 folds, BTN raises to $7, Hero raises to $27, BB folds, BTN calls $20

Flop: ($56) 5 4 J (2 Players)
Hero bets $40, BTN calls $40

Turn: ($136) K (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($136) Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $65, Hero



Je vais assez souvent 2barrell ce K turn en bluff (scary card pour sa range et améliore globalement la nôtre), donc il faut aussi bet for value pour équilibrer.
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mer 22 Fév 2012 - 18:34

je le met bien sur un range 77-JJ JQs-KQs AK (moins probable)

comme ils sont pas deep, j'enleve les connecteurs couleurs 56s-9Ts, reste JQs KQs

je bet/fold turn peut être

la Q river est vraiment pas une bonne carte
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mer 22 Fév 2012 - 20:41

Les sizing sont étranges.
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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mer 22 Fév 2012 - 21:29

je me demandais aussi si check flop de temps en temps sur ce flop comme vilain sait qu'on va cbet 100% de notre range ?

mais ça me parait peut être trop weak et exploitable

check/raise flop ?

apres river, il bet 1/2 pot, ça sent 2 paires ou brelan J mais ptet qui tourne un JTs, AJs en bluff

je pense pas que vilain pense que 2eme paire soit bonne pour value river

as played, je call river quand même

je pense que j'aurais pris une line cbet flop cbet turn check/fold river en micro lol

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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Mer 22 Fév 2012 - 21:35

NL100: 300bb+ stacks, flop quads, fold?


MP1: 14/7 (PAHUD filter @ 2000)
Hero: 14/7
5 hands ago: MP1 called UTG's 100bb bluff-shove and won with A high, no draws. I directed many LOLs at MP1.
Karma, what a funny word...

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $101.95
BB: $63.70
UTG: $100.00
UTG+1: $85.95
MP1: $358.15
MP2: $18.40
MP3: $154.25
Hero (CO): $321.90
BTN: $96.75

Preflop: Hero is dealt J J (9 Players)
2 folds, MP1 raises to $5.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $5.00, 3 folds

Flop: ($11.50) J K J (2 Players)
MP1 bets $11.00, Hero calls $11.00

Turn: ($33.50) K (2 Players)
MP1 bets $24.00, Hero raises to $124.00, MP1 calls $100.00

River: ($281.50) K (2 Players)
MP1 bets all-in for $218.15, Hero ?

I had about $180 left. Would MP1 shove river with the only K?

After cursing, you: (1) vomit/wipe mouth/call, (2) time out because you insta-shattered your mouse, or (3) simply press the power button on your computer and slowly walk away...from poker...forever?

SICK HAND !!!

le full ring c'est rigged


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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Jeu 23 Fév 2012 - 10:46

obiyann a écrit:
masterdonk a écrit:
18 000 pages de theory et de calculs



Tel: 03.28.24.40.60 Prise en charge 100% CPAM. Ils sont gentils et la bouffe est pas mauvaise.

Laughing

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MessageSujet: Re: analyse de mains jouées sur internet   Jeu 23 Fév 2012 - 12:57

une pollution de topic de + ....

bon ben postez pas dans la section strategie, je posterais pas sur les autres sections

vous avez pas besoin de regarder cette section, ça vous interesse pas

merci de pas flooder, ya la buvette sinon

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